NEWS ANALYSIS FROM GERMANY

THURINGIA

Thuringia’s new state premier elected with the help of opposition MPs

December 2024: Thuringia has a new state premier. Some eleven weeks after the state elections on 22 September, the new parliament elected Mario Voigt of the CDU (Christian Democrats) as state premier. In addition to the CDU, Voigt’s governing coalition also includes the SPD (Social Democrats) and the BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance). However, with 44 MPs, the coalition does not have a majority in parliament.

​

German political parties

CDU (Christian Democrats) centre-right, conservative

SPD (Social Democrats) centre-left

AfD (Alternative for Germany) far-right

Die Grünen (Greens), pro-environment, centre-left

FDP (Free Democrats), liberal, pro-business

BSW (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance), populist

​

Voigt received 51 votes in the premiership election, which meant that some opposition MPs must have voted for him. These were probably members of the Linke (The Left party).

 

Before the vote, the three governing parties had agreed with the Left that it would vote in favour of the new Prime Minister, even though the party is not part of the coalition. Both sides wanted to avoid a scenario whereby Voigt would need votes from the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) to be elected premier.

 

Mario Voigt also wants to involve the Left party in government work in the future and thus ensure majorities in the adoption of the state budget and other legislative initiatives. In return, the Linke was given assurances that the new government would refrain from working with the AfD.

 

BACK TO TOP​

 

BRANDENBURG

Brandenburg’s Social Democrats to govern with newly-founded Sahra Wagenknecht party

December 2024: For the first time in Germany, the newly founded party BSW party (Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance)* will co-govern a federal state. After the state elections on 22 September, the Social Democrats (SPD) and the BSW decided to govern the state of Brandenburg together. Dietmar Woidke of the SPD will remain state premier. After the Green Party did not receive enough votes to send representatives to the new state parliament, Woidke had to look for new partners. As he could only have formed a minority government with his preferred candidate, the CDU (Christian Democrats), only the BSW remained. The SPD had ruled out a coalition with the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany).

​

Yesterday, 10 December 2024, Dietmar Woidke was elected state premier by the Brandenburg parliament. However, he only received the necessary absolute majority in the second round of voting. In the first round, two or three members of the SPD-BSW coalition did not vote in favour of him. In the second round, however, it was enough. With 50 yes-votes, he even received votes from opposition parties.

 

There will be no hospital closures under the new government. The coalition partners also agreed to make nursery schools free of charge for parents, increase the number of police officers and curb illegal migration. At the federal and EU level, the two partners want to work towards a diplomatic solution to the Ukraine conflict.

 

Meanwhile, tomorrow (12 December 2024), the election of a new state premier is also on the agenda in Thuringia. CDU politician Mario Voigt wants to be elected as Bodo Ramelow's successor with votes from the CDU, SPD and BSW. Unlike the SPD/BSW alliance in Brandenburg, the coalition in Thuringia does not have its majority, with 44 out of 88 MPs.

 

*The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is a political party founded in Germany in January 2024. Its namesake and co-founder is the member of the Bundestag and publicist Sahra Wagenknecht. Most of the founding members previously belonged to the Left Party. The party is represented in the 20th German Bundestag and three other state parliaments through the defections of elected representatives, while it was elected to the state parliaments of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg, where it has been the third-strongest party since September 2024.

​

BACK TO TOP​

​

STATE ELECTIONS IN BRANDENBURG

Victorious Brandenburg Social Democrats face difficult coalition options

September 2024: The Social Democrats (SPD) won the elections in the eastern German state of Brandenburg. On 22 September 2024, State Premier Dietmar Woidke's SPD became the strongest party with just under 31 per cent of the votes cast, ahead of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), supported by 29 per cent of voters. All the other parties ended the election day far behind. The Christian Democrats (CDU) received only 12 per cent of the vote, less than the newly founded populist party Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht. The Greens, the Liberals (FDP) and the Left remained below the 5 per cent threshold and will not be represented in the new state parliament.

​

At the federal level, the German SPD Chancellor Olaf Scholz was satisfied with the results, but his two coalition partners, the Greens and the Liberals, understandably less so. The head of the German government spoke of a great result for his party and the state of Brandenburg.

 

Although the far-right AfD did not achieve its election goal of becoming the first party in Brandenburg, it was also satisfied with the result. After all, it was able to gain almost six percentage points. Hans-Christian Berndt, the party's state leader, was particularly pleased with the results among young voters. The AfD is the most popular party among voters between 16 and 34. “We are the party of the future,” said Berndt.

 

The CDU leadership in Brandenburg blamed the confrontational election campaign between the SPD and AfD for the party's poor performance. “Many of our voters, who wanted to prevent the AfD from performing strongly, believed they could only achieve this by voting for the SPD.”

 

The Greens also blamed tactical voting for their party's loss of votes. “During the election campaign, the SPD gave the impression that only a vote for them could prevent an AfD election victory.”

 

It will be difficult to form a government. Together, the SPD and CDU are one seat short of an absolute parliamentary majority. The SPD has two options - either a minority government with the CDU or a coalition with the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). This option would be difficult to stomach for many Social Democrats. At the federal level, Sahra Wagenknecht, the founder of BSW, supports positions that are diametrically opposed by the German government. For example, she is against further arms deliveries to Ukraine.

​

BACK TO TOP​

​

STATE ELECTIONS IN BRANDENBURG

A sigh of relief, as Social Democrats win in Brandenburg state election

September 2024: According to initial polls, State Premier Dietmar Woidke's Social Democrats (SPD) are ahead of the far-right AfD (Alternative for Germany) in Brandenburg’s state election held on Sunday, 22 September. It is predicted that the SPD will win between 31 and 32 per cent of the vote. Just under 30 of the voters voted for the AfD. The centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) achieved 11.5 per cent and the newly-formed populist alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) 12 per cent. According to the polls, the Greens, the Left and the Liberals (FDP) will no longer be represented in the state parliament. All three parties failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold. At 73 per cent, voter turnout was significantly higher than in 2019, when 61 per cent of voters went to the polls.

 

The election was also a vote on the future of Premier Dietmar Woidke (SPD). He had announced that he would withdraw from the government if the AfD became the strongest party. This tactic now seems to have worked. “It has been hard work over the last few months,” said Woidke. At the moment, he wants to put the brakes on the euphoria a little. “But it seems that it was once again - as so often in history - Social Democrats who stopped extremists on their way to power.” Full results and analysis to follow.

 

BACK TO TOP​

​

STATE ELECTIONS IN SAXONY AND THURINGIA

German far-right party celebrates win in Thuringia while Sahra Wagenknecht’s populists make it into two state parliaments

September 2024: Earlier this year, millions of people took to the streets in all parts of Germany to make it clear that right-wing ideology has no place in the country.

 

• Each year, to commemorate the Stonewall Uprising in New York in 1970, large and small German towns and cities celebrate cultural and social diversity.

 

• The world's most successful German companies and employers warned that a political shift to the right would severely damage the country's international reputation and cost jobs.

 

• And last week, Edeka, Germany's largest retailer, took out full-page adverts advising its customers not to vote for right-wing parties.

 

But despite the large pro-diversity protests and numerous and strong warnings from German industry as well as from the country’s Churches, Sports and the Arts, yesterday (1 September 2024) a third of voters in Thuringia and Saxony gave their vote to the extreme right-wing AfD party (Alternative für Deutschland). Incidentally, the results in both states are almost identical to those of the last free Reichstag election of the Weimar Republic in November 1932, in which the Nazi party NSDAP won 33 per cent of the vote.

 

However, at that time it was an all-German result, whereas yesterday the elections were only held in the East German states of Thuringia and Saxony.

 

 

Elections in Thuringia

The results in Thuringia are particularly worrying. The state’s AfD has been categorised as a right-wing extremist party by the German Intelligence Agency (Amt für Verfassungsschutz) and the party leader Björn Höcke can be called a fascist according to a court judgement.

 

The AfD emerged as the clear winner of the elections in Thuringia. It is the first time in the history of the Federal Republic of Germany that a party categorised as far-right has won an election to a state parliament. The AfD led by Björn Höcke achieved 32.9 per cent, a significant increase compared to the 2019 election (23.4 per cent).

 

After its historic success in 2019, the support for Thuringia’s current Prime Minister Bodo Ramelow's Left Party (Die Linke) has plummeted to 13 per cent - five years ago the party was supported by 31.0 per cent of voters. Ramelow has governed Thuringia since 2014, most recently with the Social Democrats (SPD) and the Green Party (Grünen) in a minority government.

 

Although the Prime Minister is still by far the most popular politician in Thuringia, he was unable to prevent his party's fall from grace. Bodo Ramelow cited the fight against the AfD and Björn Höcke as the main focus of his election campaign. “I am fighting against the normalisation of fascism,” he said on TV. “I didn't fight against the conservative Christian Democrats (CDU) or the new Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW) in the election campaign, but against the AfD.”

 

The Thuringian CDU achieved 23.7 per cent of votes cast. This is an improvement on its 2019 result (21.7 per cent) and puts it in second place behind the AfD. With top candidate Mario Voigt, it presented itself as a clear alternative to the minority coalition government of Bodo Ramelow, but the CDU was hardly able to capitalise on the dissatisfaction in the state. The top candidate's appeal was also limited. Voigt focussed the election campaign on a duel between himself and Höcke, presenting himself as a doer with Thuringian roots, unlike the native West Germans Höcke or Ramelow. Voigt categorically ruled out cooperation with Höcke's AfD, as well as with the Left and the Greens.

 

In addition to the AfD, the BSW was also one of the big winners of this election. The party - which ran with the former Mayor of Eisenach Katja Wolf as its lead candidate - achieved 15.6 per cent at its first attempt. During the election campaign, the BSW scored points primarily with policy issues such as criticising the supply of weapons to Ukraine and calling for negotiations with Russia. However, its positions against immigration and in favour of social security also struck a chord with many voters.

 

The centre-left SPD, the Greens and liberal FDP (Freie Demokraten), the parties that form Germany’s federal government, experienced a political disaster, with the SPD performing best. The Thuringian Social Democrats achieved a historically low 6.1 per cent and will remain represented in the state parliament. The party was unable to score points in traditional SPD areas such as social justice.

 

Thuringia is now facing the difficult task of forming a government. The AfD lacks the partners to govern and is not strong enough to form a government on its own. Due to its strength, however, it has considerable influence in the new parliament. Decisions and elections that require a two-thirds majority would have to be approved. For example, the constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.

 

The CDU, as the second strongest force, could explore alliances with the BSW and SPD, although it is still unclear whether this coalition would have a majority. The BSW, headed by its founder Sahra Wagenknecht, had stipulated conditions for cooperation. A three-party coalition between the CDU, the BSW and Ramelow's Linke would be mathematically possible.

 

 

Elections in Saxony

The CDU has narrowly won the state election in Saxony ahead of the AfD. The party of Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer achieved 31.9 per cent of the vote. The AfD led by Jörg Urban followed with 30.6 per cent. The Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) achieved 11.8 per cent, making it the third strongest party. The SPD achieved 7.3 per cent, while the Greens narrowly made it back into the state parliament with 5.1 per cent. The Left Party failed to reach the five per cent threshold of 4.5 per cent but still managed to enter parliament by winning two direct mandates.

 

 

Reactions

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) told the news agency Reuters that the democratic parties in both Thuringia and Saxony must form alliances without the AfD. “The results for the AfD in Saxony and Thuringia are bitter and cause concern. Our country cannot and must not get used to this. The AfD is damaging Germany within and outside its borders. It is weakening the economy, dividing society and ruining our country's reputation,” emphasised the German head of government.

 

Bavaria's conservative Minister President Markus Söder has described the AfD's good performance in the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony as a turning point in German post-war history.

 

Söder did not explicitly comment on whether the CDU in Thuringia should stick to its decision of incompatibility with the leftist party Die Linke. “The important goal now must be to form a stable government that can then also achieve something,” he said.

 

Söder said it was understandable that the CDU had reservations about working with the Left and the BSW. That would normally be completely unimaginable. “But yesterday the unimaginable became a democratic reality and perhaps necessity.”

 

BACK TO TOP​

​

On other pages: European immigration and asylum |

 

German Brief's news pages: News in brief  | Magdeburg's Xmas horror | 
 

In your opinion: Please comment

​

Contributing news stories

Please email the German Brief Editor if you wish to suggest or contribute a news story. Alternatively, you may use our input form.

​